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“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.

The result is an emerging ecosystem that looks less like millions of customers casually trading predictions with one another and more like an outsourced sportsbook trading room. Exchanges own the platform and recruit the customers; specialist firms price the risk and provide the money needed to make those markets function.

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About 1,300 workers represented by UNITE HERE Local 26 and Teamsters Local 25 unions at Encore Boston Harbor went on strike on Friday after their previous collective bargaining agreement expired on 31 August.

In a statement, Wynn Resorts said the unions chose to strike “despite our continued efforts” to negotiate a new deal. Workers are calling for wage increases, healthcare and pension benefits and job security protections. The casino will remain operational despite the walkout. Workers had voted to authorise the strike on 20 August.

“We are committed to finding common ground that is fair, financially sustainable and protects jobs for the long term,” Wynn said.

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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.