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As the NFL season begins, a state in close proximity to the New England Patriots became the latest to attempt to curb the influence of the trading platforms. On 10 September, one day after the Pats’ season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont addressed the growth of the markets during a speech in downtown Hartford. On the same day, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders to nine unregulated operators, including Polymarket, Robinhood and Underdog Predict.
“Prediction markets have branded themselves as legal and safe, but the reality is they are not adhering to Connecticut’s consumer protection standards,” Lamont wrote in a statement.
While such orders have become customary around the nation this year, Connecticut’s missive took it one step further. The department also issued nearly 30 subpoenas to licensed gaming service providers and a bevy of media outlets. Those issued subpoenas include ones served to PayPal, Sportradar Solutions and Plaid, a payment processing app that holds a gaming licence. Although those companies are not under investigation, the subpoenas appear to be the first against service providers that conduct business with prediction markets in some form.
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“Second, the opportunity itself was time-limited. 888Africa became available because of Evoke’s own strategic evolution, and assets of this quality with this kind of market position do not come up often.
“Third, the African market has matured to a point where the regulatory, mobile and demographic tailwinds are now translating into genuine, durable growth rather than early-stage promise.”
However Hjalmar Ahlberg, who covers GiG as an analyst for Redeye, suggests the decision to acquire 888Africa and re-enter B2C may be partly down to headwinds being experienced by the company’s B2B business.
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A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.
That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.
“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.
